This Cooper Kupp prop bet for Super Bowl provides surprising value

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The Super Bowl is a prop-betting bonanza, and no one takes better advantage of the action than our director of predictive analytics, Sean Koerner.

He’s tracking the 2022 Super Bowl prop bets market in the run-up to Bengals-Rams, comparing his projections to the odds in order to make picks as he identifies value on a rolling basis.

Cooper Kupp Longest Reception: Over 28.5 Yards

I was a little surprised to find value on a Cooper Kupp Over. I would guess that sportsbooks are taking the majority of money bet on his props on the Overs (as expected), but there’s still quite a bit of value here.

First, I’m projecting Kupp for closer to 8.0 receptions while books appear to be closer to 8.3-8.4 receptions. And based on my simulations, Kupp’s median for “longest reception” is closer to 33.5 yards.

Here are my projected chances of him going over various yards in this range: 27.5 (66.3 percent); 28.5 (63.7 percent); 29.5 (61.1 percent); 30.5 (58.5 percent); 31.5 (55.9 percent); 32.5 (53.3 percent); 33.5 (50.7 percent); 34.5 (48.1 percent).

Kupp isn’t necessarily a deep threat (8.4 yards average depth of target), but he is phenomenal after the catch (6.2 average yards after catch). His massive volume also gives him multiple shots to clear this number, which he’s done in 15 of 20 (75 percent) games this season with a median of 36.

Bet to: 30.5

Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp
Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp
Getty Images

Kevin Huber Longest Punt Over 52.5 Yards

The Super Bowl is the only game all season we are blessed with punter props, so I always try to take advantage — that’s why I created a simulator just for punter props and have found a pretty big edge on one.

Bengals punter Kevin Huber’s median expectation for “longest punt” should be closer to 55.5 yards. I’m giving him about a 62 percent chance to clear 52.5 yards. The math checks out, as he has cleared 52.5 yards in 13 of 20 (65 percent) games this season.

Here are my projected chances of him going over various yards: 51.5 (64.4 percent); 52.5 (61.9 percent); 53.5 (57.6 percent); 54.5 (53.2 percent); 55.5 (50.4 percent); 56.5 (44.6 percent). As you can see, every yard matters in this market, so it’s critical to lock it in at 52.5 yards or better.

Bet to: 53.5

Bengals punter Kevin Huber
Bengals punter Kevin Huber
Getty Images

Which team will call the first timeout? Rams (-115)

Typically I ignore these types of props as you are essentially betting on a coin toss, but this prop offers a sneaky edge as the Rams should be closer to -150 to call the first timeout. The NFL’s Michael Lopez conducted an in-depth study on how coaches use their timeouts. And according to Lopez’s findings, Sean McVay leads all head coaches with 2.9 unnecessary timeouts per game. If you’ve ever watched a Rams game, this makes sense, as McVay is very liberal in how he uses his timeouts.

I would also assume (in theory) that the first timeout called in every game is “unnecessary,” so I did some digging to see if the Rams were the first team to call a timeout over the past few games. I was blown away to find out that they have called the first timeout in nine (!) straight games.

Considering McVay’s use of “unnecessary” timeouts and the recent trend of the Rams being the first team to call a timeout in their games, I’m willing to back a prop I typically ignore.

Bet to: -130

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