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A tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form over the Gulf of Mexico in coming days.
According to the National Hurricane Center, the system is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Yucatan Peninsula.
As it moves slowly northeastward, it has an 80% chance of formation during the next 48 hours and the same chance over the course of the next five days.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across parts of the Yucatan Peninsula during the next day, spreading across western Cuba, South Florida and the Florida Keys on Friday and Saturday.
ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BEGINS
Tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of western Cuba, southern Florida, or the Keys later on Thursday.
The National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center is forecasting scattered-to-numerous flash floods for South Florida and the Florida Keys.
If the system were found to contain 40-mph winds or higher, it would become Tropical Storm Alex.
Alex is the first name on the 2022 list of storm names for the Atlantic Basin.
HURRICANE AGATHA BREAKS MAY STORM RECORD AS IT WEAKENS OVER MEXICO
“While that can’t be ruled out, a strong storm is not anticipated due to the strong upper-level winds and the dry air they will push into the Gulf of Mexico,” Fox Weather noted.
Hurricane Agatha – the strongest hurricane since records have been kept to come ashore in May in the eastern Pacific – made landfall in Mexico Monday afternoon.
The Category 2 hurricane had maximum sustained winds of 105 mph, though it rapidly lost power.
Oaxaca Gov. Alejandro Murat said Wednesday that Hurricane Agatha left at least 11 dead and that 33 people remain missing.
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More than 40,000 people in the state have been affected in the southern Mexico state.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.